My thinking was that whilst the polls had called the wrong result on 2016 there were a number of factors which suggested history would not repeat itself. Echoing the forecasting website FiveThirtyEight, who had predicted an 89% chance of a Biden victory when they stopped updating their model, I had tweeted that these odds were far too long for Biden, suggesting the true price was nearer 1.2. A look back at the 2020 US Election winner oddsįor most of Tuesday, November 3 the major betting markets had been quoting Joe Biden to win at around 1.5, with Donald Trump correspondingly around 3.0 at best prices. In this article I’m going to investigate whether this was true for the 2020 US Presidential Election. Articles, competitions and more Follow Pinnacleīut how did the betting market perform in comparison? It’s an often touted maxim that the best, and possibly only, opinion poll worth paying attention to is the betting market, since this is the one poll that has skin in the game: people’s money is on the line.
